Jeudi 1er octobre 2015, Salle de réunion de l’IAO (R66), de 14h à 15h30
"The Structural Causes of Japan’s Lost Decades"
Kyoji Fukao, Professor of economics, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University ; Program Director, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI)
Résumé : Although Japan had largely resolved the problem of non-performing loan by the early 2000s, economic growth hardly accelerated, resulting in what now are “two lost decades.” This paper examines the underlying reasons from a long-term and structural perspective using a KLEMS-type database and micro-level data. Major issues examined include the chronic lack of domestic demand since the mid-1970s caused by the long-run decline in capital formation through the slowdown in the growth of the working age population as well as the resulting current account surplus and yen appreciation, and supply-side issues such as slow TFP growth due to Japan’s low economic metabolism. A key finding is that while large firms’ TFP growth since the mid-1990s has outstripped that in the 1980s as a result of research and development (R&D) and internationalization, the TFP of small firms has stagnated. The analysis further shows that the reason why small firms’ TFP growth has lagged behind probably is their sluggish investment in R&D and information and telecommunication technology as well as a decline of technology spillovers from large firms [PDF].